Believe it or not, this is a chart shaman's divination.
As of the end of June, the index has declined, but credit has remained largely increased. To narrow this gap again, the index needs to rise or credit needs to decrease. If buying momentum disappears and credit decreases, the decreasing credit could pull the index down further.
Who will receive that amount? Pension funds have exceeded their proportion and lack buying power, so it's probably foreigners.
On the other hand, customer deposits are declining more sharply than the index. Customer deposits, which surged significantly in March, drove up the index, but that momentum appears to have been lost.
Therefore, it seems difficult to expect an upside before foreigners return or a major increase in deposits occurs.
Finally, the KOSPI chart.
1. It appears to have peaked and is flowing along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands after a trend reversal.
2. The index failed to recover after breaking below the 60-day moving average.
3. Trading volume has been gradually decreasing since peaking in February.
4. Selling orders are densely concentrated between 5,000 and 6,500.
5. RSI is at 37, indicating that market sentiment remains in a downward trend.
Assuming that the current decline is a short-term adjustment and not a long-term trend reversal,
since psychological indicators have already moved out of the greed zone and selling orders are concentrated nearby, I believe it's a time to endure pain rather than sell (selling should be done in the greed zone).
The next resistance levels are the 120-day line and the 200-day line. If RSI turns around near the 120-day line, the 200-day line, or the thick selling order area around 6,000, it can be considered a buying opportunity. Or, if foreign capital inflows occur before that, you may consider buying.
To summarize metaphorically, support troops have no bullets and pushed the line too far forward, but after reaching the end of the offensive, they are retreating and pulling back the line to regroup. Foreign support is needed.
* Note: I am not responsible even if I am wrong. The results of investments are your own responsibility.
P.S : Those who invest blindly in accumulation funds don't need to worry about this kind of nonsense and just invest according to the set rules. Governance reform is now inevitable and will improve, so prices will follow value in the long term. The current decline is meaningless in the short term and is just noise in the long term.
