After Micron's earnings announcement on June 25th, when everyone was buying semiconductors due to Micron's earnings surprise,
there were people who planned to buy hyperscalers or undervalued M7 stocks.
Perhaps there were analyses from various sources, and I also confirmed it visually, and some things are becoming clearer.
Amazon
This is Amazon's daily chart. As you can see, June 25th was the lowest point within a month, and it rose afterwards, with trading volume exploding on June 26th.
Apple
Similarly, June 25th was the lowest point within a month, and trading volume exploded the next day, recovering from the previous day's decline.
Microsoft
June 25th was the lowest point within a month, and trading volume exploded the next day, leading to an increase.
Meta
Meta also had June 25th as its lowest point within a month, but unlike other stocks, trading volume didn't increase on June 26th and instead increased on June 29th.
Perhaps it was considered the riskiest among hyperscalers, and many people who had already bought other rising stocks entered later to purchase it.
I only found four companies in 10 minutes,
but I think there will be more if I look further.
Based on Micron's earnings announcement on June 25th, we can infer things like whether LTA contracts were announced? Will they invest a lot of money in the future? If so, how much cash flow do current companies have? Can they operate that much? How much debt did they issue through corporate bonds? If they issued this many corporate bonds compared to contracts, what kind of performance can we expect?
Investment firms like Morgan Stanley and BlackRock probably reduced their semiconductor holdings on June 26th and bought hyperscaler stocks.
Then, semiconductor short views emerged, and bad reports started to appear in early July. Famous Michael Burry probably caught this too, and after hearing the news about the Gwangju semiconductor plant investment in Korea, he likely found good reasons to maintain his short position.
This is just my personal speculation, but I think the semiconductor sector's downtrend will end when hyperscalers have enough cash flow from cyclical trading and their earnings are announced. The next day, if there's a selling pressure, and we see where big players on Wall Street move their money, the downtrend might end.
I'm still letting AI analyze data and looking for similar patterns. I plan to analyze daily charts of companies with similar patterns.
It's around 1:30 am on July 17th, and the US semiconductor market is still in a downtrend despite not experiencing a technical rebound. It seems like everyone is trying their best to hit Micron put options at 850 ahead of option expiration tomorrow.
Of course, there's still tomorrow, so anything can happen, but it's fortunate that the head of department has a day off tomorrow.
KOSPI fell below 6800 and more seriously, Hynix might have touched 150 and Samsung 22. Many individual investors might have panicked at that time...
It's fortunate to have a day off tomorrow, but I'm worried about the direction of the US market tomorrow... and how the Iran war will end. It's a worrisome night.
