Today, the KOSPI fell -1%, and I was a little relieved, but it's being beaten down mercilessly...
Watching the KOSPI today, I felt like the stock market's defense has disappeared.
Yesterday, it was good that the pattern was broken even though I bought it, but suddenly, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.7% and oil prices broke through $92, causing the US market to collapse... and so did the domestic market.
Today's bad news piled up...
There is a high possibility that we will enter a long sideways pattern.
Based on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the stock price fell sharply due to foreign selling without any increase in closing prices.
The market is becoming more uneasy because Trump hasn't tweeted "TACO" for a long time.
Iran is not being cooperative and is trying to shake things up in the Red Sea through the Houthi rebels.
All the bad news piled up in just one day.
Based on the AI analysis of the last market situation, here's what it says...
Unlike yesterday, the probability of a sideways pattern has increased rather than an upward pattern, and the probability of a downward pattern has also increased.
As you know, in a downward scenario, when the war drags on... usually, a bear market lasts for about 3 months...
After 3 months, the market adapts regardless of the war. The problem with this Iran war is that it started in March, there was a ceasefire, then fighting resumed, and it's been repeating... so the market can't get over this unpredictable period...
On the other hand, there's some good news...
After closing negatively for 4 weeks based on weekly charts,
it closed positively for the first time in 4 weeks... If only the lower tail was longer, there would have been a possibility of a trend reversal next week, but it's an ambiguous cross pattern, so it's hard to interpret...
It's questionable whether it can be called good news, but it confirmed that individual buying sentiment is still alive.
Honestly, in this market situation, it wouldn't have been strange if it had collapsed and broken down. But it stopped at -3%, and now it's stopping at -5%, which makes the feeling of loss stronger.
The leverage improvement measures will be implemented on July 31st, and with T+2 margin requirements of 3,000,000 won, it will be practically impossible to do short-term trading with a small amount. Since foreigners can only buy and sell, there will be a problem managing the gap ratio, so I hope it will have some effect...
And foreigners are "doing that pattern" again.
At the end of the trading day, they bought 300 billion won worth of stocks and over 1 trillion won worth of futures contracts to create a gap up on Monday...
The futures market ended at 4:10 pm, and they sold up to 1.4 trillion won, but it seems like they bought about 1.3 trillion won (individual + index futures) by the end.
Please, this time, let Trump tweet "TACO" and hopefully make a peace agreement soon so that things can finally normalize.
