Following yesterday's interview with author Yoo Si-min, today we have Lee Kwang-soo on Startup Wiki (not the CEO Park Si-dong). He talks about stocks and real estate without any breaks (because he's talking alone) and offers quite candid and strong criticisms of recent market and policy trends. As someone who is just at the level of a beginner investor, I was simply grateful to learn and follow along. This time, in particular, he strongly criticized the Democratic Party's recent real estate policies for their inefficiency. Although I summarized it later, I highly recommend watching the video.
<Stocks>
I've been in this field for over 20 years, but the changes happening now are unlike anything I've ever seen. It's a new world that you can't understand with your head. To be honest, I haven't fully adapted yet. I've always said that nothing is eternal and we need to keep preparing. But honestly, I wasn't prepared enough for how quickly things are changing.
Since many of you who have recently started investing trust our words, I reflect a lot on this. However, I am sure that this experience will be a stepping stone for both us and you to invest for a long time.
Let me tell you what we overlooked from the stock price changes since last August. It's 'volatility' in the market, to be precise, the KOSPI 200 volatility index. The volatility index continued to rise while the KOSPI was rising. This means that investors were sensing some kind of risk.
I keep emphasizing this, but 'risk' in investing means "the possibility of something unexpected happening." If you can anticipate a loss, it's not a risk.
This is the first time I'm mentioning it, but if the volatility index drops to around 40~45, I think that's a good time to buy. You can check this volatility index on the KRX Integrated Information System. I will continue to inform you about this volatility index.
Many people may think that since stock prices have risen, many people must have made money. But as you know, that's not necessarily true. The reason is that the more the stock price rises, the more we buy those stocks. That's why the KOSPI index has fallen by 25% from its peak, and SK Hynix has fallen by almost 40%.
That's why I keep telling you to 'respond'. This is different from your beliefs. I still believe that the KOSPI index will rise 3~4 times in 10 years. However, it's important to understand that responding and believing are different things. There are times when stock prices fall, and you need to set a standard for how much to sell before the actual situation arises.
Everyone makes wrong predictions. You need to prepare countermeasures for those 'wrong' times and execute them to survive. That's how you can invest for a long time. When the criteria are met, sell some of your holdings and secure cash to create the possibility of catching better opportunities. Again, making predictions and responding are different matters. Even if you believe in the long-term rise, it is essential to have a standard for when to sell even if there is a certain level of decline.
Having a response plan will ease your anxiety. However, many people are not used to setting clear response plans and executing them. Like many other fields, the process is more important than the result in investing. As the movie <Moneyball> says, "It's a process, it's a process, it's a process." Don't be swayed by content that emphasizes results.
When I told you to study the process, some of you even bought a stack of books on Warren Buffett and chart reading. That's not what I meant. Let me give you an example of my method. Although stock prices have fallen significantly since June 22nd, when there was a big drop, as shown in this table, there are stocks whose prices have actually risen. Let's start from here. Why do you think these stocks rose? That's what studying is all about.
For example, why did Kumho Construction and Kumho Electric rise? It must be the influence of the Honam mega project. Why did NHN rise? It's because they are making remarkable progress in the gaming industry through AI.
<Real Estate>
I think the two most important real estate policies right now are these. Normalization of high-priced housing holding tax and residence-centered real estate policy
Now, I'd like to say that I was doing something for Lee Jae-myung's presidential campaign. I designed a pledge centered on these two policies and proposed it to the Democratic Party in a 30-page document. There was a lot of progress, but ultimately it didn't make it into the pledges because it fell through at the last minute. After Lee Jae-myung's election as president, I also participated as a member of the National Policy Planning Advisory Committee for the transition team. I made the same argument there, but I was frustrated. Although this repeated, I did not get tired and continued to make the same arguments.
Eventually, the real estate policy came out in a form that was quite consistent with my arguments. It's already having a clear effect. But!! The Democratic Party is trying to change this policy direction again. This should never happen. Price stabilization is starting in Gangnam, and the full implementation hasn't even begun yet. Why is the Democratic Party trying to change this before it even starts? Apartment prices in Gangnam are falling and the number of properties for sale is increasing. We can't stop here.
The 'revision request' recently raised by the Democratic Party is not a complementary measure. It's just about doing something for the 0.3% of ultra-high net worth real estate owners. What on earth has happened? I'm so angry. After doing nothing for a long time, they are trying to nullify the policy that was finally introduced after more than a year? No way. There's nothing to gain from me being this angry and opposed. Real estate is a market where prices go up and taxes are reduced, so it makes money. Why would I say something like that? I only want the world our children live in to be better. In this regard, the recent 'strong request' by Democratic Party members such as Park Sung-joon is absolutely unacceptable. Betraying those who believed in the promises of the Democratic Party and the president and not speculating on real estate, and reducing taxes for speculators? Does that make sense?
