6/26 US Stock Market - AI Semiconductor Plunge Amid Healthcare and Telecom Rally
June 26, 2026 Market Analysis
## Today's Market at a Glance
The US stock market was outwardly calm but inwardly volatile today.
- Index Summary: The S&P 500 fell less than -0.1%, effectively closing flat, while the Dow fell -0.1% and the Nasdaq fell -0.2%. (apnews.com)
- Market Internals: Although there were more rising stocks than falling stocks, the decline of large technology stocks centered on AI and semiconductors weighed down the indices. (apnews.com)
- Sector Scoreboard: Seven out of eleven sectors rose today. Communication services, healthcare, real estate (REITs), consumer staples, financials, cyclical consumer goods, and utilities rose, while energy, technology, materials, and industrials fell.
The key takeaway is "AI Rally Cooling Off vs. Cyclical and Defensive Sectors Rebounding." Below, we'll summarize what moved in each sector and what it means for individual investors.
---
## 1. Technology Stocks: AI and Semiconductor Rally's Rough Correction
### What Happened Today?
- The technology sector fell -0.43% based on daily returns, with four out of seven days showing weakness.
- Individual stocks saw significant declines in semiconductor and storage-related companies such as On Semiconductor (ON -24%), Western Digital (WDC -13%), and Seagate Technology (STX -12%), putting pressure on the entire sector.
- Selling pressure concentrated on semiconductor stocks from the beginning of the session, with related ETFs (e.g., SOXX) reportedly falling around -4% (investing.com)
### Catalyst: On Semiconductor's Large Acquisition and 'Overheating' Concerns
- On Semiconductor (ON) announced after the market closed yesterday that it would acquire Synaptics for approximately $7 billion in a stock swap deal. (benzinga.com)
- The market disliked three points:
1. Dilution Concerns due to All-Stock Deal: New share issuance could reduce the value of existing shareholders' stakes. (au.investing.com)
2. Strategic Fit Questions: On Semiconductor is strong in automotive and industrial power semiconductors, while Synaptics focuses on consumer displays, touchscreens, and IoT. This raises questions about the alignment of core competencies. (au.investing.com)
3. Already High Valuation and AI Fatigue: With the semiconductor index rising over 80% this year, concerns are growing that "the AI theme is too expensive." This environment makes it easy for selling to surge even with minor setbacks. (investing.com)
As a result, On Semiconductor's stock price plunged over 9% before the market opened and its intraday decline exceeded -20% at one point, making it today's representative "villain." (au.investing.com)
### Short and Medium-Term Trends in Perspective
- Looking at the 7-day history, technology fell sharply by -2.79% on June 23rd, rebounded slightly on the 24th and 25th, but then dropped again today (-0.43%).
- Based on the past 60 trading days, the technology sector portfolio has surged +29% since April 1st, but has been in a -5% adjustment range since June 15th.
- This suggests that the strong upward trend seen throughout April and May is shifting towards a "box pattern and correction" near its peak this month.
### What it Means for Individual Investors
- “AI·Semiconductors=Eternal Straight Line Rise” is not a reality. Even if the performance is good, adjustments can come at any time depending on valuation and the tone of the news.
- In the short term, market patience with stocks that are mentioned as being overvalued and diluted (share dilution) has significantly decreased. As seen today in the ON case, M&A (mergers and acquisitions) with strategic controversy can be immediately judged by stock prices.
- On the other hand, for long-term investors, this adjustment can be seen as a 'physical test'. Semiconductor companies with good business models and cash generation capabilities may interpret this as a "stepwise adjustment" where they are giving back some of the sharp rise this year.
---
## 2. Healthcare: Moderna·Lilly Lead Strong Rally
### Today's Key Players: Moderna and Lilly
- The healthcare sector ranked second in strength today with a gain of +1.88%.
- Top performing stocks included Moderna (MRNA +13.1%), Eli Lilly (LLY +7.2%), and Biogen (BIIB +7%)
### Why Did It Rise?
- Moderna (MRNA) stock price continues to surge on growing expectations for the mRNA·CAR-T pipeline update recently announced. The article states that the company is expanding its pipeline into oncology and autoimmune diseases using its own mRNA·cell therapy technology, and anticipation for follow-up data is supporting investor sentiment. (invezz.com)
- Eli Lilly (LLY) is also highlighting its strategy of expanding into the mRNA·cell therapy field along with obesity and diabetes treatments. The acquisition of Orna Therapeutics earlier this year, which secured an in vivo CAR-T platform, is being reevaluated as a long-term growth story. (invezz.com)
### Trend Position
- As of today, healthcare has risen for four consecutive trading days (-0.17% → +1.24% → +1.72% → +1.81% → +1.88%) since June 22nd, showing a clear momentum shift.
- Based on the 60-day portfolio as of today, healthcare has finished adjusting from early May and entered an upward trend again in mid-June. With a rise of about +7% since June 22nd, it can be seen as a resumption of a medium-term uptrend.
### Meaning for Individual Investors
- While healthcare has been relatively quiet compared to other sectors due to interest rate and economic concerns, it is now a sector where both "growth + defense" characteristics are highlighted.
- During adjustments in AI·semiconductors, there is often a pattern of funds moving into healthcare and bio, which have growth stories based on "real demand" such as disease, treatment, and population structure. Today's rally by Moderna and Lilly is a representative example of this rotation.
---
## 3. Communication Services: Advertising·Platforms·Games Lead the Rebound
### Today's Numbers and Stocks
- The communication services sector ranked first among all sectors today with a gain of +1.95%.
- Top performing stocks included Applovin (APP +7%), Match Group (MTCH +6%), and Trade Desk (TTD +6) which are mainly digital advertising and mobile platform companies.
### Background Story
- Early to mid-week this week, the technology·platform sector as a whole was shaken, and the communication services sector also experienced consecutive declines. In fact, looking at the 7-day history, it fell -1.46% on the 22nd, -0.31% on the 24th, and -0.82% on the 25th.
- Today's rebound can be interpreted as "funds moving out of AI·semiconductors to internet·advertising·game platforms with relatively less valuation burden".
- In addition, the decline in oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions are positive for consumer sentiment. Expectations that people will have more disposable income for travel, entertainment, and online services indirectly benefit advertising and subscription-based platform companies. (apnews.com)
### Connection with Medium-Term Flow
- Over the past 60 trading days, the communication services portfolio has experienced a correction of more than -7% since entering June after rising from April to May.
- Today's rebound is closer to a short-term technical rebound (reversal) within this downward trend and it is still too early to call it a "trend reversal".
### Investor Perspective
- The communications services sector has high earnings volatility due to the mix of "platform + content + advertising," but as economic recovery and interest rate cut expectations grow, so do hopes for a rebound in advertising and entertainment demand.
- When AI infrastructure (semiconductors and cloud) undergoes adjustments, attention may shift towards consumer platforms that leverage AI to generate actual revenue (advertising targeting, recommendation algorithms), making this a timing worth watching.
---
## 4. Real Estate, Utilities, and Essential Consumer Goods: Beneficiaries of Interest Rate and Oil Price Declines
### 4-1. REITs and Real Estate: Rally Accompanying Interest Burden Relief
- The real estate (REIT) sector rose +1.78% today, ranking among the top performers.
- Leading gainers include Costa Group (CSGP +5.6%), American Tower (AMT +4.1%), and Crown Castle (CCI +3.9%), with commercial REITs and communication tower REITs standing out.
- The backdrop is an "relief rally" driven by declining interest rate levels, oil prices, and geopolitical risk mitigation. Brent crude oil prices fell to pre-Iran war levels today, raising hopes that inflation pressure could ease somewhat. (apnews.com)
- Over a 60-day portfolio, REITs have experienced significant fluctuations since April without a major decline and have been trending upward again since mid-June. Notably, they have risen by approximately +4.6% since June 18th, indicating an improvement in the medium-term trend.
Meaning:
- REITs are typically considered "bond substitutes + inflation hedges." On days like today when interest rate and oil price burdens ease, the dividend appeal tends to be highlighted.
### 4-2. Utilities and Essential Consumer Goods: Defensive Stocks Revisited
- The utilities sector rose +1.03%, and consumer staples rose +1.35%.
- In utilities, NiSource (NI), Ameren (AEE), and CMS Energy (CMS) recorded gains of 2~3%, while in consumer staples, McCormick (MKC), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) stood out.
- Over the past 60 trading days, the utilities portfolio has rebounded by approximately +8.5% since its low on June 1st, and consumer staples have also continued their short-term upward trend since June 22nd.
Meaning:
- Utilities and consumer staples are sectors where people need electricity, water, food, and essential goods regardless of the economic climate. Therefore, they serve as "safe havens" for capital when growth stock volatility increases.
- On days like today when there are significant adjustments in AI and semiconductors, it's a good opportunity to check if your portfolio has an appropriate mix of defensive stocks.
---
## 5. Financials and Cyclical Consumer Goods: Selective Rebound Amidst Limited Movement
### Financials: Index +1.15%, Individual Good News from FDS
- The financials sector had a good day, rising +1.15%.
- FactSet Research Systems (FDS) surged by approximately +11%, leading the gains. As a provider of market data and indices, FDS benefits from increased demand for asset management and research, as well as the growth of index-based products. This makes it increasingly attractive in times of heightened index volatility.
- Looking at the medium-term trend, the financials portfolio experienced adjustments in April and May but began to rise again from early June. The current increase is partially reversing a slight adjustment (-0.9%) since June 16th.
### Cyclical Consumer Goods: Travel, Apparel, and Online Consumption Recovery Hopes +1.08%
- Cyclical consumer goods rose +1.08%.
- Top gainers today included MGM Resorts (MGM), Expedia (EXPE), and Lululemon (LULU) in the travel, leisure, and premium apparel sectors.
- The oil price plunge and easing Iran-related risks are expected to reduce airfare and transportation costs, boosting travel demand. (apnews.com)
- Looking at the 7-day history, cyclical consumer goods experienced consecutive declines on June 22nd and 23rd, followed by a +2.27% surge on June 24th, a -0.73% adjustment on June 25th, and another rebound today, reflecting a wide box range pattern.
Meaning:
- In the short term, travel, retail, and leisure stocks are fluctuating significantly based on oil price and interest rate trends.
- Long-term investors should focus more on individual companies' brand strength, margin structure, and debt levels. Macro issues like oil prices and interest rates can be used as tools to adjust entry and additional purchase timing.
---
## 6. Energy·Industrial Materials·Materials: Oil Price Drop Weakens Energy, Rest Mixed
### Energy: Direct Hit from Oil Price Plunge
- The energy sector fell -0.29% today.
- Brent crude oil prices plummeted nearly -3.8%, returning to pre-Iran war levels. (apnews.com)
- As geopolitical tensions related to Iran eased somewhat, concerns about crude oil supply disruptions decreased, leading to a decline in the "war premium" that had previously risen.
- While leading stocks such as EQT, Valero (VLO), and Texas Pacific Land (TPL) saw slight gains, the sector as a whole could not avoid weakness.
- In the medium term, the energy portfolio rose by more than +7% since April but has fallen -9% since May 18th, showing a clear adjustment phase.
Meaning:
- Energy stocks are highly sensitive to oil price movements. After surging due to war and supply shocks, stock prices tend to retrace when the situation stabilizes.
- For long-term investments, it is important to review individual companies' dividend policies, cost structures, and renewable energy transition strategies. For short-term trading, it is crucial to keep track of geopolitical news and inventory and demand data release schedules.
### Industrial Materials·Materials: Short-Term Pause
- The industrial materials sector fell -0.78% today, ranking last among 11 sectors, while materials fell slightly by -0.47%.
- After a significant rise (+2% or more) in the past week, industrial materials saw a pullback today. Materials experienced consecutive declines on the 22nd and 23rd, followed by a rebound on the 24th and 25th before entering another pause.
- Based on a 60-day trading period, the industrial materials portfolio has risen by more than +7% since mid-May and is still maintaining an upward trend.
---
## 7. Summarizing Today: "AI Adjustment vs. Real Estate·Defensive Stock Revival"
Today's market can be summarized in one sentence: "The AI·semiconductor rally took a breather, while healthcare·telecommunications·REITs·defensive stocks filled the void."
- Indices barely moved, but temperature differences between sectors were significant.
- AI·semiconductors: Overheating concerns and a large M&A (Onsemi-Synaptics) exposed short-term fatigue.
- Healthcare·telecommunications services: "Cash flow growth" stories based on actual treatment therapies and platform businesses regained attention.
- REITs·utilities·consumer staples: Benefited from potential easing of interest rate and oil price burdens.
### What It Means for Me: Portfolio Checklist
On a day like today, individual investors should ask themselves these questions.
1. Is the AI·semiconductor weighting too high?
- As seen with Onsemi, a single news event (acquisition, regulation, demand outlook change) can significantly amplify volatility.
2. Is the healthcare·defensive stock weighting sufficient?
- Growth-oriented healthcare companies like Moderna and Lilly with "real disease solution" stories, and defensive assets such as utilities and consumer staples, contribute to portfolio stability as volatility increases.
3. Is the asset allocation prepared for oil price·interest rate changes?
- While an oil price drop may pressure energy, it can be positive for airlines, travel, and REITs. Understanding how one macro event can have opposing effects on different sectors allows you to create a portfolio where "one side supports the other when shaken."
Finally, summarizing the 60-day trading trend, technology and industrial materials remain this year's winners. However, there are signs that the baton is gradually passing to sectors that have been overlooked so far, such as healthcare, REITs, and utilities.
As the AI·semiconductor frenzy cools down, this period presents a rare opportunity to calmly assess "where undervaluation lies."
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice for any specific security or asset.
https://nextinvest.org/ko
Free to redistribute ^^
