일부 전문 트레이더들은 다음주 하이닉스 본주 현물 매입을 통해 ADR 가치를 올릴거라는 예측이 있습니다.
하이니긋 ADR 상장을 주도하고 있는 주관사중에 JP모건이 있습니다.
그냥 재미로 하는 음모론이지만 J**건이 일부러 반도체 숏포지션을 유지 근거를 만들기 위해 안좋은 레포트를 내고 모건**리도 함께 동참해서 아시아 공매도 포지션을 잡았다는 이야기입니다.
이걸 통해서 얻는 이득은
하이닉스 본주 가격에 하방 압력을 통해 공모가를 낮추는 효과
하이닉스 ADR 상장에 대한 프리미엄 효과 ( 다른 미국 반도체들이 떨어지는동안 기업가치 확실한 비교군이 생기게 되므로 )
공모가 낮추는 작업을 통해 혹시라도 모를 실패를 대비한 헤지 포지션 ( 실패하면 어느정도 손실을 만회하기 위한 일종의 안전장치 )
이정도가 됩니다.
이제 상장을 하게 되면 성공적인 상장과 수익을 높이기 위해 이제 반도체 관련 좋은 레포트들이 쏟아질 수 있습니다.
제 예측에는 아마도 블랙록이 가장 먼저 내놓을 가능성이 높습니다. 이유는 하이닉스 본주 지분률이 5%정도 되기 때문입니다.
사실 이건 다 재미로 하는 음모론 같은 얘기지만
그럴 수도 있겠다 싶은 이야기기도 합니다.
삼성전자와 마이크론이 실적이 엄청 좋음에도 갑자기 반도체가 많이 올랐다는 이유로 월가에서 레포트가 어느순간 쏟아지고 분위기가 엄청 안좋아지면서
공매도 숏포지션을 통해 주가에 계속해서 하방압력을 넣었기 때문입니다.
코스피가 폭락하게 되고 레버리지 숏/롱을 통해 손해를 메꾸려는 움직임 덕분에 우리나라 주가가 엄청 흔들렸습니다. 물론 외국인들도 레버리지 매수를 통해 일부러 흔드려는 의도가 있었을거라고 생각은되지만 그 부분은 아직 확실치 않으니 심증일 뿐이겠죠.
미래는 확실한 것은 없습니다만, 이란 전쟁이 재발하거나 우리가 모르는 글로벌 악재가 있지 않는 한에는 반도체에 아주 잠시 훈풍이 불 가능성이 높아진듯 합니다.
무섭게 떨어지던 공포를 이겨내고 조금이라도 자기 주관에 맞게 물을 타시거나 아니면 현금 관망을 통해 저점이 확인되면 매수를 하신 분들에게는 꽤 괜찮은 기다림과 인내의 결실이 오지 않을까 희망해봅니다.
Beberapa pedagang profesional memprediksi bahwa pembelian tunai saham induk Hynix minggu depan akan meningkatkan nilai ADR.
JP Morgan adalah salah satu perusahaan underwriter yang memimpin listing ADR Hynix.
Ini hanya teori konspirasi untuk kesenangan, tetapi ceritanya adalah bahwa J**gan sengaja mengeluarkan laporan buruk untuk menciptakan alasan mempertahankan posisi short semiconductor, dan Morgan** juga ikut berpartisipasi mengambil posisi short selling di Asia.
Keuntungan yang diperoleh melalui ini adalah
Efek menurunkan harga penawaran publik melalui tekanan penurunan harga pada saham induk Hynix
Efek premium pada listing ADR Hynix (karena kelompok pembanding dengan nilai perusahaan yang pasti terbentuk sementara semiconductor Amerika lainnya menurun)
Posisi lindung nilai untuk mengantisipasi kemungkinan kegagalan melalui upaya menurunkan harga penawaran publik (sejenis mekanisme keselamatan untuk memulihkan kerugian sampai batas tertentu jika terjadi kegagalan)
Itulah kira-kiranya.
Sekarang ketika listing terjadi, laporan-laporan terkait semiconductor yang positif dapat mulai berdatangan untuk memastikan listing yang sukses dan meningkatkan keuntungan.
Dalam prediksi saya, kemungkinan BlackRock akan menjadi yang pertama mengeluarkannya sangat tinggi. Alasannya adalah tingkat kepemilikan saham induk Hynix sekitar 5%.
Faktanya ini semua adalah cerita seperti teori konspirasi untuk kesenangan, tetapi
juga bisa jadi cerita yang mungkin terjadi.
Meskipun Samsung Electronics dan Micron memiliki kinerja yang sangat bagus, tetapi dengan alasan bahwa harga semiconductor tiba-tiba naik banyak, laporan dari Wall Street tiba-tiba membanjiri dan suasana menjadi sangat buruk,
karena mereka terus memberikan tekanan penurunan pada harga saham melalui posisi short selling.
KOSPI jatuh drastis dan harga saham negara kami sangat berguncang karena gerakan untuk menutupi kerugian melalui leverage short/long. Tentu saja saya pikir warga asing juga mungkin memiliki niat untuk sengaja mengguncang melalui pembelian dengan leverage, tetapi bagian itu masih belum pasti, jadi itu hanya kecurigaan.
Tidak ada yang pasti tentang masa depan, tetapi jika tidak ada perang Iran yang terulang kembali atau berita buruk global yang kita tidak ketahui, tampaknya kemungkinan besar momentum positif akan meningkat di sektor semiconductor untuk waktu yang sangat singkat.
Saya berharap bahwa mereka yang telah mengatasi ketakutan penurunan yang mengerikan dan menambah posisi sesuai dengan pendapat mereka sendiri, atau mereka yang membeli setelah titik terendah terkonfirmasi melalui pengawasan tunai, akan mendapatkan hasil dari menunggu dan kesabaran yang cukup memuaskan.
Some professional traders predict that the value of ADR will increase through purchasing SK Hynix shares next week.
JP Morgan is among the lead underwriters leading SK Hynix's ADR listing.
It's just a fun conspiracy theory, but the story is that J**gan intentionally released negative reports to create justification for maintaining semiconductor short positions, and Morgan**ly also participated together to establish short-selling positions in Asia.
The benefits gained through this are
The effect of lowering the offering price through downward pressure on SK Hynix's main stock price
Premium effect for SK Hynix's ADR listing (as other U.S. semiconductor companies are declining, a clear comparison group with confirmed corporate value emerges)
Hedge position prepared for any potential failure through the process of lowering the offering price (a kind of safety mechanism to recover some losses if it fails)
That's about it.
Now that the listing will take place, positive semiconductor-related reports may pour out to ensure a successful listing and increase profits.
In my prediction, it's likely that BlackRock will release it first. The reason is that BlackRock's stake in SK Hynix is about 5%.
In fact, this is all kind of a conspiracy theory for fun, but
it's also a story that makes you think, "That could be the case."
Despite Samsung Electronics and Micron having excellent results, reports suddenly poured out from Wall Street claiming that semiconductors had risen sharply, and the sentiment became very negative.
This is because they continued to put downward pressure on stock prices through short-selling positions.
The KOSPI index plummeted, and due to movements attempting to cover losses through leveraged short/long positions, our country's stock prices were shaken greatly. Of course, I think foreigners may have had the intention to intentionally shake the market through leveraged purchases, but since that part is still uncertain, it's just circumstantial evidence.
Nothing is certain about the future, but unless the Iran war recurs or there are global adverse factors we don't know about, it seems likely that a favorable wind will blow briefly in semiconductors.
For those who overcame the fear that was dropping sharply and either averaged down a bit according to their own judgment, or bought when the bottom was confirmed through cash monitoring, I hope that a reasonably good result of waiting and patience will come.
