URL : https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
Published in February of this year, 「THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS」 is a scenario that assumes an economic crisis that could occur in 2028 due to the spread of artificial intelligence. At the time of its release, it acted as a catalyst for amplifying anxiety in the stock market.
1. Replacement of the SaaS Industry
- AI directly produces business management and automation services, leading to a decrease in revenue for existing SaaS companies
- Reduction of white-collar jobs in software development, sales, consulting, etc.
2. Collapse of the Intermediation Industry
- AI agents directly perform product searches, comparisons, reservations, and contracts
- Decline of fee-based industries such as travel, insurance, delivery platforms, real estate brokerage, and card companies.
3. Expansion of AI Reinvestment by Companies
- Companies reinvest profits increased through workforce reductions into AI systems and automation equipment
- A recurring structure arises where AI performance improvement → further restructuring.
4. **Decrease in White-Collar Income and Consumption**
- Expansion of unemployment and wage reductions among professionals and high-income earners in companies
- Reduction in consumption of housing, automobiles, travel, dining out → deterioration of corporate performance → further layoffs
5. Transmission of SaaS Impairment to the Financial Sector
- SaaS companies that borrowed money using subscription revenue as collateral fall into default
- Losses spread to private equity funds, private equity funds, insurance companies, and reinsurance companies.
6. **Impairment of Prime Housing Collateral Loans**
- Decrease in future income for professionals and white-collar workers who had high creditworthiness at the time of the loan
- Increase in credit card debt → depletion of savings → increase in mortgage delinquencies
7. **$13 Billion Housing Collateral Loan Market Crisis**
- A simultaneous occurrence of falling housing prices and loan defaults leads to a reduction in lending by financial institutions
- Decline in asset prices → contraction in consumption → deepening recession
8. **Government Fiscal Crisis**
- Tax revenue decreases due to a decrease in earned income and consumption, while unemployment benefits and welfare expenditures increase
- Expansion of fiscal deficits and exposure of the limitations of existing welfare and tax systems.
The most impressive part for me while reading the report was,
"**Artificial intelligence removes human inefficiency and replaces unique knowledge, which was previously held by a few, with universal knowledge that anyone can utilize. As a result, numerous high-income white-collar jobs disappear...**" Perhaps this sentence most accurately expresses the anxiety I have vaguely felt when looking at AI.
Do you remember? In January 2026, an open-source project called **"OpenClaw"** was released. (Although it was publicly released at the end of 2025, the name OpenClaw is from January 2026.) The founder is currently known to have joined OpenAI. OpenClaw is a gateway-type AI agent that can be granted administrator privileges on a computer, check emails and chats, purchase products, and perform various tasks. It **can be seen as an initial form of an agent AI that goes beyond simply answering questions and directly operates computers and performs various tasks instead of humans**. I **believe it will bring about major changes in the AI ecosystem.** Perhaps we are living in the midst of a huge change without even realizing it.
In the meantime, strangely enough, from an investor's perspective, I can't stop thinking, "Ah, power will always be in short supply." **"SMR, Small Modular Reactor,"** faces challenges such as safety and cost-effectiveness, but considering realistic conditions, wouldn't it be a strong contender?
Reading the article was a time when my worries about the future and the strange thoughts of an investor intersected.
