Something suddenly occurred to me during today's session, so I redid a regression analysis based on the Nasdaq. It's based on data from the past few years. This is to check the financial engineering and trend deviation of the Nasdaq. Since it has now touched the 20-day line based on the "Nasdaq futures," my purpose is to examine the possibility of a rebound. At this point, the 20-day line is within the 1-sigma trend range, so it's a correction within that range. If it breaks out of this, there's a possibility of further deviation, so I've added my personal guess that hedge capital won't easily let it break out either.
In practice, it looks like the rebound is happening slightly above the 20-day line. In terms of points, the rebound occurred only about 10 points above it. (As of now, around 9pm on the night of the 21st) However, if the index rises today, the weighted average value will change, which will ultimately result in it sitting right at the bottom of the 20-day line. (Whether it will fall again... I can't guarantee 100%.)
I put in a small short-term position in SOXL 3x today.
As of now, Korea is the "Asian branch of the Nasdaq." This is because the Korea-led market, centered on AI semiconductors among tech stocks, moves in line with the Nasdaq. So Nasdaq futures are almost 1:1 linked with Samsung Electronics.
However, there was an unusual movement in Samsung Electronics during today's night session, which I find quite suspicious. There could be various reasons including profit-taking, but SK Hynix surged again. Looking at the data later, foreign investors sold out of both stocks. 500,000 shares for Samsung Electronics, and a small amount for SK Hynix.
Rather than profit-taking or reasons like that, I see this more as temporary capital outflow ahead of the weekend, or short-term funds taking profit due to the disappearance of a catalyst. Currently, I understand that the capital leading Korea's derivatives market is not long-only funds but hedge capital. Of course, there is definitely some spot buying capital as well, but I still consider it weak at this point.
Please refer to the below. First, let me say that this is a personal opinion and statistical conclusion. The text in red is my interpretation.
I hope this serves as reference material for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shareholders, especially Samsung Electronics shareholders.
Additional note: Also, Nasdaq futures are currently up 0.7% today. Even this level seems like a sufficiently large rise. Looking at the minute charts, a Nasdaq futures rebound trend is visible across all timeframes from 10-minute to 120-minute. The 120-minute is still weak. Given this, I think there's some possibility of a rebound. However, since it surged enough to widen the gap, it's possible that it could get pushed down sharply once during the main session, then narrow the gap and rebound again.
The analysis tool is Claude Sonnet 5.0.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dLzV2bS97WjbR1HyVfaXbyEH3k0eGUh8/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
