These days, when you look at the domestic semiconductor industry, it seems somewhat sluggish compared to expectations.
From the perspective of foreign investors who guide the direction of our stock market, there is a rather ambiguous aspect to our semiconductors compared to US semiconductors (Micron).
One of them is the recent drop in the exchange rate, specifically the strengthening of the won, which results in a difference in value when converted to dollars.
For now, the exchange rate has fallen by about -15% compared to the peak of our domestic semiconductors.
The table below is calculated based on the won at 1361 per dollar as of the current year (2026).
Item | High | Current | Won basis | Dollar basis | PBR for 2026 | PBR for 2027 |
|---|
Hynix | 2,919,000 won | 1,613,000 won | -44.74% | -37.82% (Exchange gain +6.92%) | 17.19 -> 9.39 | Estimated 1.71 |
Samsung Electronics | 362,500 won | 250,500 won | -30.90% | -22.19% (Exchange gain +8.71%) | 5.61 -> 3.91 | Estimated 1.44 |
Micron | $1,213.56 | $956.08 | -30.17% | -21.22% (Exchange loss -8.96%) | 18.89 -> 10.72 | Estimated 3.72 |
Please note that the PBR for 2027 estimated based on expected sales may be adjusted according to guidance in the third and fourth quarters. (I expect the PBR to be significantly lower when the 2027 forecast guidance is released...)
In dollar terms, Samsung Electronics and Micron are very close.
Considering the Korea discount, from a foreign investor's perspective, buying Korean semiconductors is currently a bit more burdensome than Micron.
Ultimately, the key to buying is whether Micron will rise enough for Korean semiconductors to catch up.
If you think about why Hynix has a higher loss rate than Micron in dollar terms despite having a larger price difference from its peak, if you try to match the PBR with Samsung Electronics, the high point would be 2.36 million won, and the corresponding dollar drop would be about -24%. Considering that Hynix has risen excessively so far, matching the PBR with Samsung Electronics results in similar figures.
Currently, there is a lot of energy condensation on semiconductors in the market.
For example, looking at Dell and HPE server companies' sales or guidance, it is quite positive. Selling a lot of servers means buying a lot of RAM, and these days, most high-spec AI chips are being installed in servers, so Nvidia is benefiting from this and rose 3% yesterday.
One reason why the domestic market is currently circulating is that institutional investors are selling large-cap stocks and actively buying secondary batteries and cosmetics sectors. Foreign investors are not actively buying semiconductors because they feel they are heavy compared to the market.
Therefore, the future direction of semiconductors will depend on how much Micron's stock price rebounds in response to its third-quarter earnings announcement. In addition, Nvidia and hyperscalers, whose fourth-quarter results are predictable, can also have a significant impact.
Although it may be frustrating right now, server sales volume is quite positive.
While the market is volatile due to the Iran war, oil prices, and national bond interest rates, progress is being made within this volatility. Looking at the market broadly and not feeling anxious about the current situation, it is necessary to be a little more positive.
