Oil prices exceeded $90 per barrel of WTI today.
If oil prices exceed $90, it's like having a seizure
Bond yields are rising
The dollar index is rising
Gold/coin prices are falling as a result
These three things happen primarily.
Yesterday, foreigners bought about 10 billion won worth of put options at the end of the market. They had been buying a lot of futures, so it seemed like they were looking for an upside, but they seem to be gradually managing their risks.
Moreover, with Besant's pressure to "raise Japanese interest rates and manage exchange rates," if Japan raises interest rates, it will become more difficult to borrow Japanese yen, which has been cheap so far, and invest.
Foreigners are now preparing for a downside. They are reducing their holdings and watching the lower points.
Along with the seasonal weakness in September, the atmosphere has been somewhat melancholic since the beginning of the month, and with the confrontation between Iran and the United States escalating again, oil prices have exceeded $90.
Foreigners' positions in Korea are now clear. They are selling their holdings to reduce risk. In fact, there is no need for a hedging strategy like buying call options and selling underlying assets as before. Even if they sell the underlying assets now, it will not be a loss because they are buying back their own shares of Hynix and incinerating them. Therefore, as long as they sell less than the ratio of purchases to the total amount of Hynix, the proportion of Hynix will increase, so it will not be a loss. Since the foreign ownership ratio of Hynix is around 50.6%, selling less than 50% means profit.
Fortunately, thanks to large companies buying back their own shares, the downside is being defended.
These days, there are more people doing swing trading. It has become official that they buy Samsung at around 24 and Hynix at around 150, and sell Samsung at 27 and Hynix at 170.
As long as the Iranian crisis continues, price pressure will continue, and ultimately, the United States will have no choice but to raise benchmark interest rates.
No matter how much Besant and Kevin Wash think that AI's productivity can lower prices, looking at the current economic indicators, it is becoming difficult not to raise benchmark interest rates.
The KOSPI index has been stuck around 6800 because individual investors bought around 6600 and sold all at 6800, but I think we have no choice but to think positively that if the average purchase price of individuals is diluted like this, a good momentum will arise and we can look up again.
This week was a very important juncture. With the downward break of the lower end of the triangular convergence practically confirmed, there is a high possibility that it will enter a downward sideways movement after breaking through the channel's lower end.
As Japan stabilizes its exchange rate and raises interest rates, and some time passes, foreign investors' macro direction will likely change to buying. For now, we have no choice but to accept the selling as a risk reduction measure.
We have been patient for two months, but we still need to be patient. Since this week's Wednesday and Friday market trends may head downward, I think it is necessary to watch the market for a longer period.
