Today was a very important day to escape the 10-day line box through the gap, but
unfortunately, I couldn't escape the 10-day line box. Leverage & Inverse short-term traders are hitting based on the daily chart and the 10-day line, so they are repeatedly switching from inverse to leverage when it rises from the bottom after reaching the 10-day line.
Those who sold today after seeing that the 10-day line had come would have suffered a little loss, but I think those who quickly switched to inverse probably still made money.
Personally, I took a big escape rush and sold over 1 trillion won.
And since ETFs also escaped, it seems that the ETF rebalancing at 2 pm in the financial investment sector was due to selling. Perhaps this part was an unexpected variable for foreigners, and they couldn't respond, so the 2 trillion won buy ended up being swallowed whole.
Looking at the recent pattern, the National Pension Service bought in the morning and sold around 2:20 pm. Today, they started selling from 1:40 pm, and as institutional selling volume came out from 2 pm, the stock price gains were returned.
The ETF rebalancing is said to have caused only the semiconductor sector to fall, and other sectors were not affected. The evidence seems a bit weak, but there's no other way to explain the selling of gold investment. I will share comments from experts with solid reasoning later.
Today ended ambiguously clinging to the 10-day line. Tomorrow is important, and if it closes with an uptrend, it will enter a new pattern. If it breaks through the 10-day line, we can expect a gradual upward sideways movement.
However, if Google's earnings are bad, it will fall again from the box without breaking through the 10-day line.
In this case, there is a high possibility that the market sentiment will continue to be bad until October.
And with the resumption of the Iran war, the 10-year treasury bond yield exceeded 4.6%, increasing the likelihood of an unexpected adverse event.
A few days ago, Oracle, which received a BBB- rating, is facing problems. In order to invest in AI infrastructure, it has raised $20 billion through equity financing and secured a $38 billion loan package through JP Morgan + global banks, and is currently building data centers in Texas and Wisconsin.
The problem here is that in Wisconsin, there are demands to post collateral and proceed with the project because they don't trust Oracle. The current rise in 10-year treasury bond yields is threatening Oracle.
Since BBB- is just below junk grade, it's practically considered a default. More seriously, it's likely that undisclosed private equity fund loans were also involved. If repayment pressure arises, there could be a chain reaction, putting M7 companies that raised capital for CAPEX investments in OpenAI at risk.
The worst-case scenario is a -60% drop based on the Nasdaq. Data center construction continues to be delayed, and Oracle's situation doesn't look good. Warning reports are already coming out.
Trump needs to use AI for a private settlement with China, but he is making the situation worse by escalating tensions with Iran. I hope TACO will come out soon and stabilize oil prices, but it's ironic that the person who created this risk is profiting from it.
Now everything depends on Google's earnings announcement at 5 am tomorrow. The KOSPI ultimately failed to break through the 10-day line, and SOX and Micron are struggling due to its aftermath. It seems unlikely that Micron will break through the 20-day line as expected today.
Now, all the hopes of the world are on Google. I hope they announce good earnings and show a willingness to increase CAPEX significantly, saying that they have good cash flow liquidity and solidity.
