오늘 금요일 인포맥스라이브를 들으면서
하이닉스 삼성으로 몰리는 돈들 그리고 몇달동안 나가는 외국인들의 순매도
그리고 곧 나갈 연기금 55조
이야기를 듣다보니 "이제 코스피로 들어올 돈들이 더 있는건가?" 라는 의문이 듭니다.
얼마전부터는 외국인들이 일방적으로 돈들이 나가고 있고 기관은 매도/매수를 부추기고 있고 연기금은 이제 한계에 도달해서 곧 55조를 빼야한다고 하는 상황에서 개인돈으로만 올리는게 더 가능한건가? 라는 생각이 듭니다.
주식예탁금이 역대급으로 많다고 하지만 이게 마르지 않는 샘물도 아니고 지금처럼 주가가 크게 흔들린다면 못버티고 떨어져나가는 개인들이 생겨나면 주가를 받쳐줄 수 있나? 라는 의문이 듭니다.
레버리지가 없을때는 삼전 하이닉스가 지지부진하고 횡보할때는 다른 섹터로 자연스럽게 돈이 돌면서 외국인과 기관 개인이 서로 들어가고 나가고 하면서 돈의 순환이 되었지만
지금은 다른 섹터들이 떨어져나가니 떨어지는 섹터들을 팔고 삼성 하이닉스 본주와 레버리지로 돈들이 모여들고 있고 선순환이 전혀 안되는 상황에서 삼성/하이닉스만으로만 주가가 오르는 중입니다.
지금은 외국인/기관/개인이 앉아서 갬블링을 하는 느낌입니다. 정해진 자금 한도에서 누가 누구돈을 어떻게 뺏어서 지분을 더 높일 것인가. 하지만 조직적이지 않은 개인이 잃을게 뻔한 게임이고 결국 들이붓는 돈들이 없어지면 이 주가가 유지가 안될거라는 생각에 공포감이 드네요.
아무래도 연기금이 중간중간 보유량을 조절하지 않고 가만히 둔게 오히려 독이 된 느낌입니다.
중간중간 조절했다면 이렇게까지 주가가 오르진 않았겠지만 우상향하면서 외국인 리밸런싱도 적당한 금액으로 돈이 나가서 좀 더 건전한 장이 유지됐을거 같은데
브레이크 없이 너무 급격히 오른탓에 외국인 리밸런싱 금액이 눈덩이처럼 불어나고 개인들이 우르르 들어와서 하락하면 레버리지에 올인하는 상황이 한달간 지속되는데 오히려 코스피 전체장으로 보면 최악으로 치닫는 느낌입니다.
제 개인적인 뷰라서 다른 분들은 동의하지 않으실 수 있으나
미국의 경우엔 그래도 사모펀드로 돈이 유입되고 있고 전세계 투자자들이 돈을 끌어모으니 지금의 주가 부양을 하면서 버블을 키울 수 있지만 우리나라는 반도체랠리가 끝나기도 전에 시장 자체 버블이 터질거 같다라는 생각이 듭니다.
저의 경우 8월 중순까지 국내 보유중인 주식을 조금씩 모두 던지고 국장을 떠나 다시 조금씩 미장으로 옮기려고 합니다. 23년부터 미장을 해왔고 떨어지면 좌절하고 조금씩 소소한 수익을 해왔으나 작년 8월부터 국장하면서 미장과 국장은 정말 변수도 많고 생각해야하는게 많구나라는 생각이 많이 듭니다.
오늘 전문가들의 여러 이야기를 곱씹어보니 여러가지 생각이 교차하는데, 아직 시장을 떠날때는 아니라고 하지만 제가 먹을 자리가 여기까지다 라고 정해놓고 저는 이제 떠날 준비를 해야할 것 같습니다.
제글로 오히려 불편해지셨다면 먼저 사과드립니다. 제 생각을 적다보니 공포에 대한 이야기만 하게 되었네요.
여기 계신 모든 분들 성투하시고 항상 행복하시길 기원합니다. 오늘 폭락장에 살벌한 하루였지만 주말엔 가족들과 따뜻한 주말을 보내시길 바랍니다.
Sambil mendengarkan Infomax Live hari Jumat ini
Dana yang terpusat pada SK Hynix dan Samsung serta penjualan bersih investor asing selama beberapa bulan
Dan dana pensiun 55 triliun yang akan dikeluarkan segera
Sambil mendengarkan cerita-cerita ini, saya mulai bertanya-tanya "Apakah masih ada dana yang masuk ke KOSPI?"
Sejak beberapa waktu lalu, investor asing secara sepihak menarik dana mereka, institusi mendorong penjualan/pembelian, dan dana pensiun telah mencapai batasnya dan akan menarik 55 triliun segera. Dalam situasi seperti ini, saya bertanya-tanya apakah mungkin untuk menaikkan indeks hanya dengan dana ritel?
Meskipun dana penyimpanan saham dikatakan mencapai rekor tertinggi, ini bukan sumber yang tak pernah kering. Jika harga saham terus berguncang seperti sekarang dan investor ritel mulai menyerah dan keluar, bisakah harga saham tetap terjaga?
Ketika tidak ada leverage, Samsung dan SK Hynix bergerak lambat dan ketika bergerak sideways, dana secara alami mengalir ke sektor lain, dan investor asing, institusi, dan ritel saling masuk dan keluar, menciptakan siklus dana.
Sekarang ketika sektor lain jatuh, dana dari penjualan sektor yang jatuh mengalir ke saham induk Samsung dan SK Hynix dan leverage, dan dalam situasi tanpa siklus positif, indeks hanya naik karena Samsung/SK Hynix.
Sekarang terasa seperti investor asing, institusi, dan ritel bermain judi. Dalam batas dana yang ditentukan, siapa yang akan mengambil uang siapa untuk meningkatkan saham mereka. Tapi ini adalah permainan di mana ritel yang tidak terorganisir jelas akan kalah, dan saya merasa takut karena saya pikir jika dana yang diinvestasikan habis, harga saham ini tidak dapat dipertahankan.
Rasanya dana pensiun tidak menyesuaikan kepemilikan mereka secara berkala tetapi membiarkannya diam, yang justru menjadi racun.
Jika mereka telah menyesuaikan dari waktu ke waktu, harga tidak akan naik sejauh ini, tetapi dengan tren naik dan rebalancing asing pada jumlah yang wajar, pasar yang lebih sehat mungkin telah dipertahankan.
Karena kenaikan yang terlalu cepat tanpa pengereman, jumlah rebalancing asing tumbuh seperti bola salju, dan ritel berbondong-bondong masuk. Ketika pasar jatuh, semua menempatkan modal pada leverage, dan situasi ini telah berlangsung selama sebulan, tetapi dilihat dari seluruh pasar KOSPI, rasanya bergerak menuju yang terburuk.
Ini adalah pandangan pribadi saya, jadi orang lain mungkin tidak setuju.
Dalam kasus Amerika, dana masih mengalir melalui dana swasta dan investor global menarik dana, sehingga dapat menopang harga saham sekarang sambil menumbuhkan gelembung, tetapi saya pikir bubble pasar itu sendiri di negara kita akan pecah bahkan sebelum reli semikonduktor berakhir.
Dalam kasus saya, saya berencana membuang semua saham domestik yang saya miliki secara bertahap hingga pertengahan Agustus, meninggalkan pasar domestik, dan pindah ke pasar AS secara bertahap. Saya telah berinvestasi di pasar AS sejak 2023 dan ketika jatuh, saya kecewa dan membuat keuntungan kecil secara bertahap, tetapi sejak Agustus tahun lalu ketika saya mulai berinvestasi di pasar domestik, saya banyak berpikir bahwa pasar AS dan pasar domestik benar-benar memiliki banyak variabel dan banyak hal untuk dipertimbangkan.
Setelah mencerna berbagai cerita dari para ahli hari ini, berbagai pemikiran saling berbenturan. Mereka mengatakan ini bukan waktu untuk meninggalkan pasar, tetapi saya telah menetapkan batas untuk apa yang bisa saya ambil, dan saya rasa saya perlu mempersiapkan diri untuk meninggalkan pasar sekarang.
Jika tulisan saya membuat Anda merasa tidak nyaman, saya minta maaf terlebih dahulu. Saat menulis pikiran saya, saya hanya berbicara tentang ketakutan.
Saya berdoa agar semua orang di sini berhasil berinvestasi dan selalu bahagia. Hari ini adalah hari yang berat di pasar jatuh, tetapi saya harap Anda menghabiskan akhir pekan yang hangat dengan keluarga Anda.
While listening to InfoMax Live on Friday today
Money flowing into SK Hynix and Samsung, and foreign investors' net selling over the past few months
And the 55 trillion won in pension funds that will soon be withdrawn
As I listened to these stories, I started wondering "Are there more funds that will flow into KOSPI?"
For some time now, foreigners have been withdrawing money unilaterally, institutions have been pushing for selling and buying, and pension funds have reached their limit and will soon need to withdraw 55 trillion won. In this situation, I'm wondering if it's even possible to prop up the market with only retail investors' money?
While they say stock deposits are at record levels, this isn't an endless spring. If stock prices keep swinging wildly like now and retail investors start dropping out and leaving, I wonder if there's anyone left to support stock prices?
When there was no leverage, Samsung and SK Hynix moved sideways, and during consolidation, money naturally flowed to other sectors, allowing foreigners, institutions, and retail investors to move in and out, creating a healthy circulation of funds. However,
Now as other sectors fall, people are selling declining sectors and money is concentrating into Samsung and SK Hynix stocks and leverage. With no positive circulation happening, stock prices are rising only on the backs of Samsung and SK Hynix.
Right now, it feels like foreigners, institutions, and retail investors are sitting down and gambling. It's about who will take whose money within a fixed capital pool to increase their share. But it's a game where unorganized retail investors are clearly going to lose, and I feel terror thinking that when the money being poured in dries up, these stock prices won't be sustainable.
It seems like pension funds not adjusting their holdings periodically and just leaving them alone has actually become a poison.
If they had adjusted periodically, stock prices wouldn't have risen this much, but as they went up, foreign rebalancing would have led to money outflows at reasonable levels, and I think a healthier market would have been maintained.
Because of the sharp rise without brakes, foreign rebalancing amounts have snowballed, and retail investors have been rushing in. This situation where they go all-in on leverage when prices drop has been continuing for a month, and from the perspective of the overall KOSPI market, it feels like we're heading toward the worst.
This is my personal view, so others may not agree, but
In the US, money is still flowing in through private equity funds, and global investors are pooling capital, so they can maintain current stock prices while inflating a bubble. But I think in our country, the market bubble itself will burst before the semiconductor rally even ends.
In my case, by mid-August, I plan to gradually liquidate all my domestic stocks, leave the Korean market, and gradually shift to the US market. I've been investing in the US market since 2023 and have experienced frustrations when it drops, making modest profits little by little. But since August last year when I started investing in the Korean market, I've come to realize that both US and Korean markets have so many variables and so much to think about.
After chewing over the various stories from experts today, different thoughts are crossing my mind. While they say it's not yet time to leave the market, I've decided that I've eaten my share here, and I think I need to prepare to leave now.
If my writing has made you uncomfortable instead, I apologize first. As I wrote down my thoughts, I ended up only talking about fear.
I wish all of you here successful investing and happiness always. Today was a brutal day with a market crash, but I wish you a warm weekend with your family.
