AI로 매시간마다 전문가들 코멘트를 정리하는걸 만들어뒀는데
오늘 바닥 신호라고 보는 전문가 2~3명 정도 유튜브에서 나와서 한 말이 있습니다.
코스피 7180쯤 내려갔을때 선물 1조 5천억원 현물 4800억원 역매수가 시작 되면서 바닥시점이라고 본듯 합니다. 5월 25일 1조 9천억원 매수 이후 나온 신호입니다.
저도 코스피 분봉보면서 갑자기 7180 -> 7300으로 오르길래 무슨일인가 했는데 이런 일이 있었더라구요.
오늘 바닥신호를 본 사람이 6월중순부터 삼전 23~25만원, 하이닉스 200만원 얘기했던 사람입니다.
다른 분은 하이닉스 ADR 상장 전 차익거래 세력의 공격이 마무리 될 예정이라는데 7월 11일 기점으로 아시아계 공매도 정리가 되어 본격 반등이 시작될 것이다 라고 보는 거 같습니다.
JP모건이 공포마케팅으로 반도체 주가를 하방 압력을 주는 동안 모건스탠리가 반독점 재판 및 공포 조성을 통한 하단 지지를 확인하는 역할을 맡았다...라고 보는데, 아무래도 외국인들이 정한 하한선이 있었다고 보는 시각이 있는거 같습니다.
내일은 옵션 만기라서 외국인들과 기관의 기싸움이 될 거 같고, 당장 이번주에는 기술적 반등의 여부가 중요해보입니다. 다만 추세 전환이 되려면 다음주정도는 되어야한다는거고, 위에 전문가들의 말이 맞다면 SOX에 걸린 공매도 및 숏포지션이 다음주중에 정리가 되는 현상이 발견될 수도 있을 거 같습니다.
다만 전문가 몇명의 이야기이므로 이게 다 맞다라고는 볼 수 없는데, 대부분 입모아 얘기하는 부분은
7월말 2분기 실적 발표에 하이퍼스케일러들의 CAPEX계획과 메모리 반도체 가격 상승폭이 구체화 되면 실적 호재에 기반한 안전화 국면이 도래할 거라고 입모아 얘기하고 있습니다.
21년 2차전지와 비교하면 구체화된 실적을 확실하게 보여주고 있어서 현재의 하락장은 단기 조정이다라고 보는 시각이 다수인거 같아요.
이전에는 구체화된 시그널이나 정보가 많이 없어 전문가들이 막연히 언제부터 반등이 온다 라고 확실하게 말을 못했었는데 오늘의 경우엔 여러 전문가들이 시그널을 본게 있는지 3명정도 전문가들이 시점과 시그널을 잘 설명해놨더라구요.
저도 레드팀 전략으로 비관적인 레포트를 수집하고 전문가 평을 들어보려고 했는데, 일단 국내에 나오는 유튜브 전문가들중에는 비관적인 시선을 가진 사람이 거의 없습니다.
전문가들이 다 맞는건 아니지만 그래도 오늘 분기점으로 구체적인 시그널을 얘기하는 전문가들이 나오고 있어서 조금은 안심이 되는거 같습니다.
다들 이번주에 멘탈이 나가셨을텐데 다음주에는 꼭 좋은 회복된 멘탈로 수익을 보셨으면 좋겠습니다.
Saya sudah membuat sistem yang merangkum komentar para ahli setiap jam menggunakan AI,
dan hari ini ada sekitar 2-3 orang ahli yang muncul di YouTube dan menyebut ini sebagai sinyal dasar (bottom signal).
Ketika KOSPI turun ke sekitar 7180, reverse buying senilai 1,5 triliun won dalam futures dan 480 miliar won dalam spot mulai terjadi, sehingga mereka memandang ini sebagai titik dasar. Ini adalah sinyal yang muncul setelah pembelian senilai 1,9 triliun won pada tanggal 25 Mei.
Saya pun sedang memantau grafik menit KOSPI dan bertanya-tanya ada apa ketika tiba-tiba naik dari 7180 ke 7300, ternyata ada kejadian seperti ini.
Orang yang melihat sinyal dasar hari ini adalah orang yang sejak pertengahan Juni sudah berbicara tentang Samsung Electronics di 230.000–250.000 won dan SK Hynix di 2.000.000 won.
Seorang ahli lainnya mengatakan bahwa serangan dari pihak yang melakukan arbitrase sebelum pencatatan ADR SK Hynix akan segera berakhir, dan ia tampaknya memandang bahwa mulai tanggal 11 Juli, short selling dari pihak Asia akan diselesaikan sehingga pemulihan penuh akan dimulai.
Ada pandangan bahwa sementara JP Morgan memberikan tekanan ke bawah pada harga saham semikonduktor melalui pemasaran berbasis ketakutan, Morgan Stanley berperan dalam mengkonfirmasi batas bawah melalui persidangan antimonopoli dan penciptaan ketakutan... dan sepertinya ada pandangan bahwa pihak asing telah menetapkan batas bawah mereka sendiri.
Besok adalah hari jatuh tempo opsi, sehingga tampaknya akan menjadi adu kekuatan antara pihak asing dan institusi. Untuk minggu ini, yang terpenting adalah apakah akan terjadi technical rebound. Namun untuk perubahan tren, sepertinya baru bisa terjadi sekitar minggu depan, dan jika ucapan para ahli di atas benar, mungkin akan terlihat fenomena penyelesaian short selling dan posisi short pada SOX di pertengahan minggu depan.
Namun karena ini hanyalah pendapat beberapa ahli, tidak bisa dikatakan semuanya benar. Hal yang disampaikan secara serempak oleh kebanyakan ahli adalah
bahwa ketika rencana CAPEX para hyperscaler dan besaran kenaikan harga memori semikonduktor menjadi lebih konkret dalam pengumuman hasil kinerja kuartal kedua akhir Juli, fase stabilisasi berbasis sentimen positif kinerja akan tiba — demikian mereka kompak menyampaikan.
Dibandingkan dengan baterai sekunder tahun 2021, karena kinerja konkret sudah ditunjukkan secara jelas, sepertinya mayoritas berpandangan bahwa penurunan saat ini hanyalah koreksi jangka pendek.
Sebelumnya, karena tidak banyak sinyal atau informasi konkret, para ahli tidak bisa dengan yakin mengatakan kapan pemulihan akan datang, namun hari ini beberapa ahli — sekitar 3 orang — sepertinya memiliki sinyal yang mereka lihat dan menjelaskan waktu serta sinyal tersebut dengan baik.
Saya pun bermaksud mengumpulkan laporan pesimistis dan mendengar pendapat para ahli dengan strategi red team, namun sejauh ini hampir tidak ada ahli YouTube domestik yang memiliki pandangan pesimistis.
Para ahli tidak selalu benar, namun setidaknya hari ini para ahli yang berbicara tentang sinyal konkret di titik balik ini mulai bermunculan, sehingga saya merasa sedikit lebih tenang.
Semua pasti sudah sangat tertekan mental minggu ini — semoga minggu depan kalian bisa meraih keuntungan dengan mental yang sudah pulih kembali.
I made an AI that summarizes expert comments every hour,
Today, 2~3 experts who are seen as bottom signals appeared on YouTube and said something.
When KOSPI fell to around 7180, reverse purchases started with 1.5 trillion won in futures and 480 billion won in spot, which seems to be seen as the bottom point. This is a signal that came out after 1.9 trillion won was purchased on May 25th.
I was watching the KOSPI minute chart and suddenly it went up from 7180 -> 7300, so I wondered what was going on, and this happened.
The person who saw the bottom signal today is the one who talked about Samsung Electronics 23~250,000 won and Hynix 2 million won from mid-June.
Others say that the attack by short-selling forces targeting ADR listing of Hynix will be completed,
JP Morgan is putting downward pressure on semiconductor stock prices through fear marketing, while Morgan Stanley is confirming lower support through antitrust lawsuits and fear creation... It seems that there was a lower limit set by foreigners.
Tomorrow is option expiration day, so it seems like a battle between foreigners and institutions, and whether there will be a technical rebound this week seems important. However, for a trend change, it needs to continue next week as well. If what the experts said above is correct, we may see a phenomenon where short selling and short positions subject to SOX are settled in the middle of next week.
However, since it's just the story of a few experts, we can't say that everything is right. Most of them agree on this point:
If the CAPEX plan of hyperscalers and the price increase of memory semiconductors are concretely revealed at the end of July with the announcement of the second quarter earnings, a safe haven based on good earnings will come.
Compared to secondary batteries in 2021, there is a clear prospect of concrete results, so many people believe that the current decline is a short-term adjustment.
Previously, there were not many specific signals or information, so experts couldn't clearly say when the rebound would start. However, today, several experts seem to have seen the signal and explained the timing and signal well.
I tried to collect bearish reports with a Red Team strategy and listen to expert opinions, but there are hardly any domestic YouTube experts who have a bearish outlook.
Even if the experts aren't all right, it's still reassuring that concrete signals are being mentioned today by experts who see this as a turning point.
I think everyone's mental state might have been shaken this week. I hope everyone will recover their good spirits and make profits next week.
